Movie Review: Lady Liberty's 2005 Oscar Picks

Lady Liberty's Oscar™ Picks

The Academy Awards™ will be given out on Sunday, February 27. Many people view these particular awards as definitive of great movies, performances, and cinematic accomplishments. Sometimes they are. On the other hand, many people don't realize that the Academy consists of only a relative few members from each discipline (total Academy membership is only a few thousand), and that many of the members are considered "old school" and mired in Hollywood politic. As a result, awards are too often given for "lifetime achievement" rather than for a particular performance; and awards are withheld or granted at times based on punishment or reward rather than for a single deserving nominated accomplishment.

Taking those facts into consideration, I'm not just going to pick the major awards. I'm going to tell you who I think will win, but I'm also going to let you know who I think should win. In many cases, there's a difference.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Who should win: Jamie Foxx in Ray.

At the time, I said that Oscar™ talk for Foxx was premature because both Leonardo DiCaprio (The Aviator) and Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland) had the chops to beat him. As it turns out, Foxx did, indeed, give the best performance of the year. DiCaprio was good, but not better than Foxx; Depp was good, but hamstrung by a flawed script.

Who will win: Jamie Foxx in Ray (although DiCaprio stands a chance, with Don Cheadle in Hotel Rwanda a potential spoiler and Clint Eastwood in Million Dollar Baby a possibility largely for political reasons).

UPDATE Who did win: Jamie Foxx in Ray

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Who should win: Clive Owen in Closer.

Owen's performance was nothing short of brilliant.

Who will win: Morgan Freeman in Million Dollar Baby (Owen was so good that he might actually upset the politically correct and sentimental favorite here; Thomas Haden Church in Sideways could prove a spoiler).

UPDATE Who did win: Morgan Freeman in Million Dollar Baby

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Who should win: I've not seen all of the nominated performances, but based on reviews and discussions with others who have seen the various nominees in action, I believe that Annette Bening deserves the award for her performance in Being Julia.

Who will win: Hilary Swank in Million Dollar Baby (I acknowledge that Swank gives a good performance, but it's one of the most contrived—and overrated—roles I've ever seen brought to the theatre.)

UPDATE Who did win: Hilary Swank in Million Dollar Baby

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Who should win: Natalie Portman in Closer.

Portman's performance will take your breath away. It's simply stunning.

Who will win: Cate Blanchett in The Aviator (Blanchett is deserving; it's just that Portman is even better.)

UPDATE Who did win: Cate Blanchett in The Aviator

BEST WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Who should win: Sideways

I have never, ever seen a script so utterly real and at the same time compelling. This script is nothing short of perfect.

Who will win: Million Dollar Baby (politics, politics, politics, although The Motorcycle Diaries could pull out a come-from-behind win, also for political reasons, and Sideways is actually so good that it could overcome Eastwood's juggernaut to take the award it so richly deserves).

UPDATE Who did win: Sideways

BEST WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Who should win: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Is there anybody in Hollywood that's more creative than Charlie Kaufman? Anybody?

Who will win: This is a relatively tight race, but Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind just might pull it off. (The Aviator also stands a good chance, and political correctness could let Hotel Rwanda squeak out a win.)

UPDATE Who did win: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

BEST DIRECTOR

Who should win: Alexander Payne for Sideways

Sideways is a tour de force in how a film ought to be put together.

Who will win: Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby (sad, and not the best effort this year, but still an unfortunate probability thanks to Eastwood's long career; Martin Scorcese, who's never won an Oscar™, could pull out a win for The Aviator largely as a lifetime achievement honor rather than a single film accomplishment—though his direction is also quite frankly better than Eastwood's where the nominated films are concerned).

UPDATE Who did win: Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby

BEST FILM

What should win: Sideways

Have you ever seen a flawless movie? Then you haven't seen Sideways. It's got everything a "best film" should have: terrific acting (why Paul Giamatti wasn't nominated for a Best Actor award is beyond me); a brilliant script; terrific direction, editing, and cinematography; and wonderful entertainment value.

What will win: The Aviator (Hollywood does love a spectacle, and this movie is certainly that! Unfortunately, Million Dollar Baby, with its trite story line and all too predictable tragedy could provide an upset here).

UPDATE What did win: Million Dollar Baby

I freely admit that my predictions for the "will wins" could prove a little off. The Academy has been known to surprise the public before, and it will doubtless feel free to do so again. My picks for those actors and pictures that should win, however, are solid. There weren't a lot of great movies this year, but there were a couple; and there were a few truly stellar performances as well. Let's hope the Academy ignores politics and considers greatness as it should, and that those who deserve the Oscar™ get to go home with one.